US Inflation Report to Show Fed’s Battle Is Now All But Complete
Matthew Boesler Bloomberg December 21, 2023 Core PCE likely hit 2% target on six-month annualized basis Similar outlook for next six months seen prompting Fed easing The US inflation outlook was already steadily improving in recent months, but last week, right in the middle of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, the dam finally broke. Monthly […]
US Inflation Expectations Fall to Lowest Levels in Over Two Years
Augusta Saraiva Bloomberg September 15, 2023 US inflation expectations fell in early September to the lowest levels in more than two years as consumers grew more optimistic about the economic outlook. Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next year, down from the 3.5% expected in August, according to the preliminary […]
A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros The Wall Street Journal October 15, 2023 Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue […]
Underlying US inflation pressures subside in August
Lucia Mutikani Reuters September 29, 2023 Consumer spending increases 0.4% in August Core PCE price index gains 0.1%; up 3.9% year-on-year Underlying U.S. inflation pressures moderated in August, with the annual rise in prices excluding food and energy falling below 4.0% for the first time in more than two years, welcome news for the Federal […]
The Fed’s New Dot Plot After Its September Policy Meeting: Chart
Vince Golle Bloomberg September 20, 2023 The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate is 5.6%. The estimate for the end of 2024 increased to 5.1%. Fed policymakers on Wednesday held […]
US services sector picked up in August, along with prices
Ann Saphir Reuters September 6, 2023 The U.S. services sector unexpectedly gained steam in August, with new orders firming and businesses paying higher prices for inputs — potential signs of still-elevated inflation pressures. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 last month, the highest reading since February […]
Fed Officials Set to Double Growth Forecast Amid Strong Data (1)
Steve Matthews Bloomberg September 6, 2023 Resilience may lead to fewer rate cuts penciled in for 2024 Separate tracker from Atlanta Fed is at 5.6% for third quarter The US economy has been looking so solid lately that Federal Reserve officials will probably need to double their projection for growth in 2023 when they publish […]
America Is Back in the Factory Business
John Keilman Wall Street Journal April 8, 2023 Record spending on manufacturing construction heralds a made-in-the-U.S. rebound, stoked by green-energy incentives and concerns about foreign supply chains; ‘this is here to stay’ Production at U.S. factories rose last year, but few things were produced at a more furious pace than factories themselves. Construction spending related […]
Will the rest of the world feel China’s deflation pain?
Chris Gills Financial Times August 16, 2023 Beijing’s economic woes worsened last week after it emerged China had fallen into deflation. The news highlights how the country is struggling to live up to expectations of a strong recovery after emerging from extended Covid lockdowns. But will falling prices have an impact beyond China’s borders, in […]
Why Deflation Could Become a Welcomed Chinese Export: Next China
Bloomberg News Bloomberg August 11, 2023 Hello, this is James Mayger in Beijing. China’s deflation threat is real. While that’s a problem for its domestic economy, Americans and many others around the world should welcome the news about falling Chinese prices. The US and elsewhere have been grappling with skyrocketing inflation in the years since the […]