Updates – Monetary Policy

Cooler Inflation Tells Fed That Rates Are High Enough

The Editorial Board Bloomberg May 16, 2024 As the Federal Reserve struggles to make sense of a ceaseless flow of noisy statistics, it needs to keep one question front of mind: Is the current policy rate restrictive enough to bring inflation gently back down to the central bank’s 2% target? Right now, taken as a […]

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US REACT: April CPI Is Soft, But Details Aren’t Reassuring (2)

By Anna Wong (Economist), Stuart Paul (Economist) and Estelle Ou (Economist) Bloomberg May 15, 2024 (Bloomberg Economics) — OUR TAKE: April’s soft core CPI reading is the lowest yet this year. The good news is that we’re finally seeing disinflation in housing rents, which are on track to follow the downward path we – and probably […]

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Backdoor Roth IRAs Are Promising—and Perilous

The Wall Street Journal Laura Saunders May 3, 2024 5:30 am ET For determined savers, the backdoor Roth IRA is an important tool. It’s easy to see why: Roth IRAs offer both tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals on contributions of after-tax dollars. Savers can put in up to $7,000 this year, or $8,000 if age 50 […]

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Kelly Evans: Waiting on Perot

Kelly Evans CNBC October 19, 2023 The year is 1983. The sharp “double-dip” recession of the early ’80s has ended, and bond yields–which had finally been “broken” by Paul Volcker’s massive rate hikes–are showing signs of breaking out again. The 10-year Treasury jumps from roughly 10% to nearly 12% that summer. In his weekly client […]

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Chart of the Day: Rate Cut Bets Ease Trader pricing vs 3 cuts from Fed’s Dec dot plot

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US CPI Revisions Confirm Inflation Progress at End of 2023

Matthew Boesler Bloomberg February 9, 2024 US inflation was about the same at the end of last year as initially reported after incorporating annual revisions, according to new data published Friday. Consumer prices excluding food and energy items rose at a 3.3% annualized rate in the final three months of 2023, matching the previous reading, […]

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Picture of the Day: Crude Oil Amidst Red Sea Tensions

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Picture of the Day: Back-to-Back NFP Beats

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Picture of the Day: US Keeps Pumping Oil

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IMF Lifts World GDP Outlook on US Strength, China Fiscal Support

Global economy seen expanding 3.1% this year, 3.2% in 2025 ‘Soft landing’ is likely, but risks remain from war, inflation By Eric Martin 01/30/2024 05:00:03 [BN] (Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fundraised its forecast for global growth this year on better-than-expected expansion in the US and fiscal stimulus in China, while warning of risks from wars and inflation. The […]

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