Larry Summers: 50 Basis Point Cut in September Was ‘A Mistake’
Max Zimmerman Bloomberg October 04, 2024 “With the benefit of hindsight, the 50 basis point cut in September was a mistake, though not one of great consequence,” Larry Summers says in a post on X. Employment report confirms suspicions we’re in a “high neutral rate environment” where monetary policy requires caution in rate cutting “No landing” and […]
Treasury Market Expecting Fed Cuts Muting Reaction
Ira F. Jersey and Will Hoffman Bloomberg Intelligence September 20, 2024 The Federal Reserve’s downward shift in the dot-plot from the summary of economic projections has been fully priced by the market, but we think this outcome is less likely than an early end to cuts, or deeper cuts than are priced. The 2-year/10-year yield […]
US REACT: Mixed August Jobs Boost Odds of Smaller September Cut
Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou Bloomberg September 6, 2024 OUR TAKE: August’s jobs report is a mixed one: The unemployment rate fell on a rounded basis, but headline nonfarm payroll gains disappointed. Moreover, the large downward revisions to prior data means that — adjusting for the BLS’s outdated factors for jobs created […]
Cooler Inflation Tells Fed That Rates Are High Enough
The Editorial Board Bloomberg May 16, 2024 As the Federal Reserve struggles to make sense of a ceaseless flow of noisy statistics, it needs to keep one question front of mind: Is the current policy rate restrictive enough to bring inflation gently back down to the central bank’s 2% target? Right now, taken as a […]
US REACT: April CPI Is Soft, But Details Aren’t Reassuring (2)
By Anna Wong (Economist), Stuart Paul (Economist) and Estelle Ou (Economist) Bloomberg May 15, 2024 (Bloomberg Economics) — OUR TAKE: April’s soft core CPI reading is the lowest yet this year. The good news is that we’re finally seeing disinflation in housing rents, which are on track to follow the downward path we – and probably […]
Backdoor Roth IRAs Are Promising—and Perilous
The Wall Street Journal Laura Saunders May 3, 2024 5:30 am ET For determined savers, the backdoor Roth IRA is an important tool. It’s easy to see why: Roth IRAs offer both tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals on contributions of after-tax dollars. Savers can put in up to $7,000 this year, or $8,000 if age 50 […]
Kelly Evans: Waiting on Perot
Kelly Evans CNBC October 19, 2023 The year is 1983. The sharp “double-dip” recession of the early ’80s has ended, and bond yields–which had finally been “broken” by Paul Volcker’s massive rate hikes–are showing signs of breaking out again. The 10-year Treasury jumps from roughly 10% to nearly 12% that summer. In his weekly client […]
US CPI Revisions Confirm Inflation Progress at End of 2023
Matthew Boesler Bloomberg February 9, 2024 US inflation was about the same at the end of last year as initially reported after incorporating annual revisions, according to new data published Friday. Consumer prices excluding food and energy items rose at a 3.3% annualized rate in the final three months of 2023, matching the previous reading, […]