US REACT: Goods Disinflation Showing Signs of Returning
Eliza Winger Bloomberg June 1, 2023 OUR TAKE: The ISM manufacturing gauge declined further in May, its seventh straight month in contractionary territory. With consumers shifting their purchases toward services rather than goods, it’s hard to foresee a return to positive territory anytime soon. With the May print showing demand easing and prices paid dropping […]
US Money Supply Falls for Fifth Month in Hopeful Inflation Sign
Alex Tanzi Bloomberg May 23, 2023 The pace of US money supply declined in April for a fifth month, an unprecedented stretch that offers hope that inflationary pressures will continue to cool. The M2 measure, which includes cash in circulation as well as bank and money market accounts, dropped 4.6% to $20.7 trillion from the same […]
Jeremy Siegel Sees the Fed Lowering Rates by Year-End
Brandon Sapienza Bloomberg May 5, 2023 The Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by the end of this year, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business professor Jeremy Siegel said in an interview with CNBC. Siegel said he believes that pressure is on the Fed to cut rates, especially if wages dip and the labor market cools too […]
US Core PCE Inflation Stays Brisk While Consumer Spending Stalls
Reade Pickert Bloomberg April 28, 2023 Underlying US inflation remained brisk last month, reinforcing the case for another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next week. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, one of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges rose 0.3% in March for a second month. Compared with a year ago, the measure was up […]
Stagflation Is the Risk That Eludes Investors Mispricing Markets
Liz Capo McCormick, Garfield Reynolds, and Reade Pickert Bloomberg May 1, 2023 Slowing economy, high inflation create treacherous backdrop Schroders Plc says bonds will be ‘stand out’ asset for 2023 Financial markets are caught up in a tug of war between lingering inflation and concern about a recession as they try to guess the next […]
US Inflation Seen Coming Down Much Faster Due to Tighter Credit
Augusta Saraiva and Sarina Yoo Bloomberg April 21, 2023 Economists lower price forecasts through first half of 2024 Bloomberg survey still puts recession odds at 65% in next year US inflation is now expected to come down faster than originally projected thanks to tighter credit conditions in the aftermath of several bank failures. Economists lowered […]
Fed’s Bullard Says Recession Fears Off-Base and Urges More Hikes
Steve Matthews Bloomberg April 18, 2023 A strong labor market should keep the expansion going, he says Bullard reiterates favored rate outlook in Reuters interview Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said he favored continued interest-rate hikes to counter persistent inflation, while recession fears are overblown. “Wall Street’s very engaged in the idea there’s […]
Yellen says U.S. banks may tighten lending and negate need for more Fed rate hikes
David Lawder Reuters April 15, 2023 WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Yellen said in a “Fareed Zakaria GPS” interview […]
US Core CPI Tops Estimates, Pressuring Fed as It Weighs Hike
Augusta Saraiva BloombergMarch 14, 2023 Underlying gauge rose 0.5% in February, most in five months Shelter accounted for more than 70% of overall monthly gain Underlying US consumer prices rose in February by the most in five months, forcing a tough choice for Federal Reserve officials weighing still-rapid inflation against banking turmoil in their next […]
Powell’s Legacy Risks Being Tarnished Further by SVB Collapse
Rich Miller BloombergMarch 15, 2023 Fed faulted for not heading off troubles at the bank Former Fed Governor Tarullo calls it a ‘supervisory failure’ The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank threatens to further besmirch the reputation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, on top of the blemish he’s suffered for being slow to recognize the risk of […]