Updates – Monetary Policy

Picture of the Day: Back-to-Back NFP Beats

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Picture of the Day: US Keeps Pumping Oil

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IMF Lifts World GDP Outlook on US Strength, China Fiscal Support

Global economy seen expanding 3.1% this year, 3.2% in 2025 ‘Soft landing’ is likely, but risks remain from war, inflation By Eric Martin 01/30/2024 05:00:03 [BN] (Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fundraised its forecast for global growth this year on better-than-expected expansion in the US and fiscal stimulus in China, while warning of risks from wars and inflation. The […]

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US INSIGHT: 60,000 Headlines + NLP Algo Flag Fed Rate Cut in May

Monday, January 29, 2024 02:56 PM By Anna Wong (Economist), Nick Hallmark (Economist) and Ana Galvao (Economist) (Bloomberg Economics) — Bloomberg Economics’ new Fedspeak index, based on a natural language processing model trained on more than 60,000 Fed headlines, suggests the first rate cut will come in May. That’s later than market bets of March — but earlier than […]

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US Inflation Report to Show Fed’s Battle Is Now All But Complete

Matthew Boesler Bloomberg December 21, 2023 Core PCE likely hit 2% target on six-month annualized basis Similar outlook for next six months seen prompting Fed easing The US inflation outlook was already steadily improving in recent months, but last week, right in the middle of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, the dam finally broke. Monthly […]

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Powell Hints Fed Is Done With Hikes in Pivot Cheered by Markets

Steve Matthews and Craig Torres Bloomberg November 1, 2023 Question now is ‘Should we hike more?’ Fed chief says Powell downplays previous projections for more tightening Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted the US central bank may now be finished with the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades after it held off on raising interest rates for […]

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Investors should be careful: Wall Street is too eager to buy the dip in bonds, says Strategas

Michelle Fox CNBC October 30, 2023 Investors lured by high yields could be making a mistake if they are buying bonds these days, according to Strategas. Yields have been climbing since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates last year. The 10-year Treasuryrecently topped 5%, a level not seen since 2007, and is now hovering around 4.9%. Meanwhile, […]

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A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus

In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros The Wall Street Journal October 15, 2023 Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue […]

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Summers Says ‘Energizer Bunny’ Economy Signals Fed Hikes Failing

Christopher Anstey Bloomberg October 6, 2023 Ex-Treasury chief says Fed hikes may not be working as in past Summers says supply-demand imbalance helping drive yields up Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the surge in US job growth last month is “great news” for now but also suggests the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes aren’t working as they used to, […]

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Underlying US inflation pressures subside in August

Lucia Mutikani Reuters September 29, 2023 Consumer spending increases 0.4% in August Core PCE price index gains 0.1%; up 3.9% year-on-year Underlying U.S. inflation pressures moderated in August, with the annual rise in prices excluding food and energy falling below 4.0% for the first time in more than two years, welcome news for the Federal […]

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