Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric Cools While Spending Rebounds
Augusta Saraiva Bloomberg March 29, 2024 The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation cooled last month while household spending rebounded. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, increased 0.3% from the prior month, data out Friday showed. That followed a 0.5% reading in January, marking the […]
CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, one of world’s top ocean shippers, says the outlook has changed for the global economy
Lori Ann LaRocco Bloomberg March 15, 2024 The CEO of Hapag-Lloyd tells CNBC inventories are depleted in many cases and the ocean carrier has seen a recovery after Chinese New Year. Due to the ongoing Houthi attack issues in the Red Sea and Panama Canal drought, U.S. companies are paying more for ocean freight, with […]
Kelly Evans: Waiting on Perot
Kelly Evans CNBC October 19, 2023 The year is 1983. The sharp “double-dip” recession of the early ’80s has ended, and bond yields–which had finally been “broken” by Paul Volcker’s massive rate hikes–are showing signs of breaking out again. The 10-year Treasury jumps from roughly 10% to nearly 12% that summer. In his weekly client […]
US Inflation Report to Show Fed’s Battle Is Now All But Complete
Matthew Boesler Bloomberg December 21, 2023 Core PCE likely hit 2% target on six-month annualized basis Similar outlook for next six months seen prompting Fed easing The US inflation outlook was already steadily improving in recent months, but last week, right in the middle of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, the dam finally broke. Monthly […]
US Inflation Expectations Fall to Lowest Levels in Over Two Years
Augusta Saraiva Bloomberg September 15, 2023 US inflation expectations fell in early September to the lowest levels in more than two years as consumers grew more optimistic about the economic outlook. Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next year, down from the 3.5% expected in August, according to the preliminary […]
A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros The Wall Street Journal October 15, 2023 Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue […]
Underlying US inflation pressures subside in August
Lucia Mutikani Reuters September 29, 2023 Consumer spending increases 0.4% in August Core PCE price index gains 0.1%; up 3.9% year-on-year Underlying U.S. inflation pressures moderated in August, with the annual rise in prices excluding food and energy falling below 4.0% for the first time in more than two years, welcome news for the Federal […]
The Fed’s New Dot Plot After Its September Policy Meeting: Chart
Vince Golle Bloomberg September 20, 2023 The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate is 5.6%. The estimate for the end of 2024 increased to 5.1%. Fed policymakers on Wednesday held […]
US services sector picked up in August, along with prices
Ann Saphir Reuters September 6, 2023 The U.S. services sector unexpectedly gained steam in August, with new orders firming and businesses paying higher prices for inputs — potential signs of still-elevated inflation pressures. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 last month, the highest reading since February […]
Fed Officials Set to Double Growth Forecast Amid Strong Data (1)
Steve Matthews Bloomberg September 6, 2023 Resilience may lead to fewer rate cuts penciled in for 2024 Separate tracker from Atlanta Fed is at 5.6% for third quarter The US economy has been looking so solid lately that Federal Reserve officials will probably need to double their projection for growth in 2023 when they publish […]