US Recession Becomes Closer Call as Economists Rethink Forecasts
Rich Miller, Molly Smith, and Sarina Yoo Bloomberg July 21, 2023 Bloomberg survey shows firmer growth through third quarter Fed’s preferred inflation gauge seen ending 2024 near 2% goal Some of the forecasters who were first out of the box to predict a US recession are starting to hedge their bets as inflation ebbs and […]
Fed Seen Hiking Final Time to a 22-Year Peak in Economist Survey
Steve Matthews and Sarina Yoo Bloomberg July 20, 2023 One-fifth see another hike by November to contain inflation Fewer economists see recession relative to June survey Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates one more time next week as it ends a 16-month hiking cycle that has been the most aggressive fight against […]
Strategists’ S&P 500 Index Estimates for Year-End 2023 (Table)
Lu Wang Bloomberg July 20, 2023 The table presents estimates from strategists for where the S&P 500 Index will finish 2023 and how much profit companies will generate. S&P 500 Index 2023 close 2023 EPS Average 4,202 $213 Median 4,250 $215 High 4,825 $230 Low 3,225 $185 No. of replies 23 22 Individual Estimates […]
US Consumer Sentiment Jumps to Near Two-Year High on Job Market
Reade Pickert Bloomberg July 14, 2023 University of Michigan index climbed to 72.6 in early July Short-term inflation expectations edged up to 3.4% from 3.3% US consumer sentiment soared in early July to an almost two-year high, bolstered by easing inflation and a strong labor market. The University of Michigan preliminary index rose by 8.2 points to […]
Big Tech’s Dominance Fades as the Rest of the S&P 500 Plays Catch-up
Eric Wallerstein The Wall Street Journal July 11, 2023 The S&P 500 has dominated its equal-weighted counterpart since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank. That’s starting to change. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index which weights each company equally rather than by market cap has gained 6% this year. It was in negative territory as […]
Wall Street Soothsayers Are Bewildered About What’s Next
Denitsa Tsekova, Carly Wanna, and Lu Wang Bloomberg July 8, 2023 Up and down Wall Street, forecasters were caught flat-footed by how the first half of 2023 unfolded in financial markets. That seems to have rattled their faith in what the winning playbook for the rest of it should be. Heading into the year, a handful of predictions […]
History Says Big Tech’s Dominance Over US Stocks Poses No Risk
Jessica Menton and Elena Popina Bloomberg July 9, 2023 Past narrow leadership wasn’t impediment to further gains: BI ‘This isn’t something to be feared,’ says BI’s Wolff Wall Street strategists are increasingly voicing concerns about the concentration of Big Tech stocks in this year’s stock-market rally. But if history is any guide, there’s little reason to fear. […]
Bank of America expects more stocks to participate in market rally during the second half
Hakyung Kim Bloomberg July 5, 2023 Tech stocks led the way higher for the market in the first half. Bank of America expects other names to join in on the rally during the second half. The first half of 2023 was the best for the S&P 500 since 2019, surging 15.9%. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, had its […]
Annual inflation falls to lowest rate since April 2021, as Americans pull back spending
Sylvan Lane The Hill June 30, 2023 Annual inflation fell in May to the slowest pace since April 2021, as Americans pulled back their spending, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred way to track inflation, rose 3.8 percent annually […]
First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision
Jeff Cox The Hill June 29, 2023 The U.S. economy grew at a 2% annualized pace in the first quarter, according to a final revision to the figure released Thursday. That was well above the previous estimate of 1.3% and the 1.4% Dow Jones consensus forecast. Upward revisions in consumer spending and inventories boosted the […]