Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Very Plausible’ Path to Avoid US Recession
Alex Tanzi BloombergNovember 7, 2022 Bank maintains odds of a recession at 35% in next 12 months Average probability among Wall Street economists is at at 60% Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s top economist said there’s still a “very plausible” path for the US economy to avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening of […]
This contrarian indicator from Bank of America signals a 94% chance stocks are higher a year from now
Yun Li CNBCNovember 1, 2022 Sentiment on Wall Street has gotten so bad that strategists have finally started to throw in the towel, and that could trigger a reliable buy signal from Bank of America. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Sell Side Indicator, based on a survey of Wall Street strategists’ asset allocation recommendations, […]
Explain to Me Again How Fed Rate Hikes Bring Down Rent Inflation
BloombergOctober 29,2022 One of the biggest components of rising CPI is rent or owner’s equivalent rent on a year-over-year basis. As the Fed prepares to hike rates yet again this week to tame inflation, it’s worth asking whether its actions will have any impact on rents.The chart below suggests it won’t. In fact in 2001 […]
Strong Dollar Seen Hurting US Outlook and Even Tilting Fed Path
Steve Matthews and Kyungjin Yoo BloombergOctober 29,2022 Economists expect impact on Fed policy after greenback’s surge Fed can’t escape being central banker to world, economists say A strong dollar is likely to weigh negatively on the US economic outlook and could alter how high the Federal Reserve ultimately raises interest rates, economists surveyed by Bloomberg […]
Fed’s rate debate shifts to how, and when, to slow down
Howard Schneider ReutersOctober 21,2022 The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases. The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at […]
Treasury Buybacks Are Coming, Though the Details Are Murky
Alexandra Harris BloombergOctober 27,2022 Program may help market functioning, but is not a cure-all Facility helps correct supply-demand imbalances, analysts say The Treasury is likely to move ahead with plans to buy back securities from investors to improve market functioning, though it’s still unclear what the primary objectives of such a program should be and […]
Treasuries Extend Rally as Investors Go All In on Dovish Pivot
Alyce Andres BloombergOctober 27,2022 The Treasury market’s rally off Friday’s low continues for a fourth day. That bodes well for a continued extension of this tactical rally. Investors are going all in on the potential for the Fed to deliver a dovish pivot after soft details in the US 3Q GDP report and expectations for significant slowing in the European growth […]
U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3, better than expected as growth turns positive
Jeff Cox CNBCOctober 27,2022 Gross domestic product rose 2.6% in the third quarter versus the estimate of 2.3%. A narrowing trade deficit and increases in consumer spending and government outlays boosted the number. A sharp pullback in housing subtracted from the number, part of a broader decline in private investment. Consumer spending decelerated, increasing at […]
Goldman Sachs sees path to a soft landing for the economy getting clearer
Jeff Cox CNBCOctober 24,2022 There may be a path to a soft landing after all. At least that’s what economists think at Goldman Sachs, which said the Federal Reserve still stands a 65% chance of keeping the economy out of a recession while bringing inflation back down to sustainable levels. In a pair of client […]
Stifel says the S&P 500 will rally 15% over the next 6 months as inflation cools
Carlo Allegri ReutersOctober 24,2022 Expect the S&P 500 to rally as much as 15% over the next six months as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve pares back its aggressive tightening campaign, Stifel says. The firm’s strategist Barry Bannister said in a note to clients Sunday that the benchmark index should hit 4,300 by April […]