Senior Fed Economist Says Odds of Avoiding Recession Have Risen
Matthew Boesler BloombergNovember 18, 2022 Latest data raise soft-landing chances slightly, Raffo says Minneapolis Fed’s director of research speaks in interview (Bloomberg) A senior Federal Reserve economist said the latest data on consumer spending, wages and prices suggest the central bank’s chances of achieving a soft landing for the US economy have improved a bit […]
US Producer Prices Cool by More Than Forecast on Heels of CPI
Reade Pickert BloombergNovember 15, 2022 Index rose 8% from October 2021; up 0.2% from month earlier Core goods prices declined, while services costs also eased (Bloomberg) —US producer price growth stepped down in October by more than expected in the latest sign that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease. The producer price index for final demand advanced […]
US Retail Sales Rise Most in Eight Months as Consumers Hold On
Augusta Saraiva BloombergNovember 16, 2022 Value of purchases rose 1.3% in October, topping estimates Sales declined at department stores and electronics outlets (Bloomberg) —US retail sales posted the biggest increase in eight months in October, indicating demand for goods is broadly holding up despite decades-high inflation and a worsening economic outlook. The value of overall retail […]
US REACT: Factory Output Flags Lower Goods Prices Ahead
Andrew Husby BloombergNovember 16, 2022 (Bloomberg Economics) —OUR TAKE: October industrial production figures add to a growing ensemble of data flagging softening core-goods inflation ahead, a plus for Fed officials looking to step down the pace of rate hikes. That said, with a tight labor market and robust services-price inflation accounting for the bulk of […]
Three massive market overhangs have started moving in a positive direction for investors in 24 hours
Bob Pisani CNBCNovember 11, 2022 A three-bagger? Three macro issues have dominated the stock market in the last six months: the Fed and inflation, Covid-19 lockdowns in China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the last 24 hours, all three have moved in a manner beneficial to markets. Yesterday, it was signs inflation may […]
Fed seen slowing rate hike pace as inflation eases
Ann Saphir ReutersNovember 10, 2022 A larger than expected drop in consumer inflation last month will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to pare down future interest rate increases as the impact of its swift monetary tightening this year begins to take hold. October data published Thursday by the Labor Department showed key items like rents increasing […]
Reasons Are Adding Up for Optimism on Inflation
John Authers BloombergNovember 6, 2022 Reasons to Be CheerfulWelcome to Inflation Week. In the US, the week ahead will be punctuated by widespread school closures on Tuesday for midterm elections, by what could well be another drawn-out vote-counting process, and by Veterans Day (Armistice Day in the UK) on Friday. The big moment for financial […]
Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Very Plausible’ Path to Avoid US Recession
Alex Tanzi BloombergNovember 7, 2022 Bank maintains odds of a recession at 35% in next 12 months Average probability among Wall Street economists is at at 60% Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s top economist said there’s still a “very plausible” path for the US economy to avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening of […]
This contrarian indicator from Bank of America signals a 94% chance stocks are higher a year from now
Yun Li CNBCNovember 1, 2022 Sentiment on Wall Street has gotten so bad that strategists have finally started to throw in the towel, and that could trigger a reliable buy signal from Bank of America. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch Sell Side Indicator, based on a survey of Wall Street strategists’ asset allocation recommendations, […]
Explain to Me Again How Fed Rate Hikes Bring Down Rent Inflation
BloombergOctober 29,2022 One of the biggest components of rising CPI is rent or owner’s equivalent rent on a year-over-year basis. As the Fed prepares to hike rates yet again this week to tame inflation, it’s worth asking whether its actions will have any impact on rents.The chart below suggests it won’t. In fact in 2001 […]