Reade Pickert
Bloomberg
July 25, 2023
US consumer confidence advanced in July to a two-year high, bolstered by a strong job market and easing inflation.
The Conference Board’s index rose to 117 this month from 110.1 in June, data out Tuesday showed. That exceeded the median estimate of 112 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The group’s gauge of current conditions improved to the strongest level since March 2020. A measure of expectations — which reflects consumers’ six-month outlook — advanced to the highest since the start of last year. A gauge of expected inflation ticked down.
“Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.
Recent economic data have reinforced hopes the US can avert recession, with the job market holding firm even while key inflation gauges show encouraging signs of progress. Wages are also finally keeping pace with inflation, providing many households the wherewithal to keep spending.
The share of consumers saying recession is “somewhat” or “very likely” to occur did tick up. “Still, recession expectations remained below their recent peak, suggesting fears of a recession have eased relative to earlier this year,” Peterson said.