By Christopher Combs, Chief Investment Officer
Silicon Valley Capital Partners
May 1st, 2026
There is a familiar rhythm to every oil shock. First, markets watch crude. Then they watch gasoline. Then they watch the consumer.
That sequence is playing out again. BloombergNEF’s April 2026 presentation, Can President Trump Raise U.S. Oil Production?, frames the current energy backdrop as one defined by volatility. Oil prices have been “on a rollercoaster,” gasoline prices are up, and global oil flows have been paused, rerouted, or repriced around Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz. The presentation also makes a critical point: the market had been leaning toward surplus and a bearish price outlook before geopolitical disruption flipped the conversation toward deficit risk.
Yet corporate earnings are telling a more durable story: the consumer is not folding. Visa and Starbucks both reported fiscal second-quarter results on April 28, 2026, and both pointed to continued, robust consumer spending despite higher energy costs, inflation pressure, and global uncertainty. Visa reported fiscal second-quarter net revenue growth of 17%, with non-GAAP EPS of $3.31, while Starbucks reported global comparable-store sales growth of 6.2%, consolidated revenue growth of 9% to $9.5 billion, and raised its fiscal-year guidance.
- Energy price swings are becoming a consumer confidence test
Energy prices are different from most costs because they are visible, unavoidable, and psychological. A family may not know the exact price of crude oil, but it knows the price at the pump. A commuter may not follow the WTI forward curve, but a higher gasoline sign changes behavior.
BloombergNEF’s presentation shows how quickly the crude market shifted after March 2026. The WTI chart shows a sharp move higher after a period of weakness, while the gasoline slide makes the consumer impact direct: higher energy prices move quickly from commodity markets into household budgets.
The risk is that energy volatility acts like a rolling tax on consumption. It does not hit all consumers equally. Higher-income households can absorb the shock. Lower- and middle-income consumers are forced to make choices: fewer discretionary purchases, less dining out, shorter trips, more attention to essentials.
But the current cycle is not yet showing broad consumer capitulation. The oil market may be volatile, but the spending data from corporate earnings remains surprisingly firm.
- Visa shows continued and robust consumer transaction activity
Visa’s April 28, 2026 fiscal second-quarter report is a strong case study in the resilience of global spending. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.31, above expectations, and net revenue of $11.2 billion, up 17% year over year. Visa also said growth in payments volume, cross-border volume, and processed transactions remained strong.
That is not the profile of a consumer economy in retreat.
Visa’s business sits close to the center of the global spending system. It captures spending across categories, countries, and payment channels. When Visa reports double-digit revenue growth and resilient transaction activity, it suggests consumers are still spending through inflation, higher gasoline prices, and geopolitical uncertainty.
The message is not that consumers are unaffected. It is that they are still transacting. Energy prices are a headwind, but not yet a breaking point.
- Starbucks shows consumers are still paying for small luxuries
Starbucks’ April 28, 2026 fiscal second-quarter report tells a similar story from the discretionary side of the economy. The company reported global comparable-store sales growth of 6.2%, led by transaction growth, and consolidated revenue of $9.5 billion, up 9% from a year earlier. Starbucks also raised its fiscal-year 2026 guidance for comparable-store sales growth and non-GAAP EPS.
That matters because Starbucks is a consumer mood stock as much as it is a coffee company. When customers continue buying premium drinks, food attachments, and customized beverages, it suggests the consumer has not fully shifted into defensive mode.
The company’s results show that traffic and average ticket can still grow when the value proposition is right. Better store execution, improved service, product innovation, and food attachment are helping Starbucks capture spend even as higher coffee costs, tariffs, and energy prices pressure margins.
Bottom line: resilient, but not invincible
The consumer remains stronger than the headlines suggest. Visa shows continued and robust global transaction activity. Starbucks shows consumers are still willing to spend on affordable indulgence. Together, the two earnings reports argue that higher energy prices have not yet derailed U.S. or global consumption.
But resilience is not immunity. Energy shocks rarely break the consumer overnight. They grind. They compress disposable income, pressure corporate margins, and eventually alter behavior if they last long enough.
The key variable is duration. If oil prices retreat as supply routes normalize, consumers can likely absorb the shock. If crude remains elevated and gasoline stays high, the pressure will gradually migrate from market volatility into household decisions.
For now, the consumer is still spending. The question is how long energy prices will allow that resilience to continue.