Updates – Macro Trend

Citi’s bear market model says it may be time to buy the dip

PUBLISHED THU, MAY 26 202211:12 AM EDT Fred Imbert@FOIMBERT In this article .SPX+88.60 (+2.23%) Citi thinks it may be time to start buying stocks again, as its bear market model signals that conditions are improving. The bank’s “bear market checklist,” or BMC — which looks at a broad range of potential indicators for a market downturn, […]

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Seller Exhaustion? Four Charts Show Bears’ Grip Loosening

Thursday, May 26, 2022 10:32 AM By Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric Bullish signs have emerged following near bear-market slump The risk-reward for short-term move is bullish: Cappelleri (Bloomberg) — From an easing in second-by-second selling momentum to a pop in junk-bond prices and fewer stocks hitting new lows, key data watched by analysts to gauge the real-time […]

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CBO boosts U.S. GDP growth estimates, says inflation has topped and will cool to 2% by 2024

PUBLISHED WED, MAY 25 20222:13 PM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO Thomas Franck@TOMWFRANCK The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that real gross domestic product, or GDP, will grow 3.1% in 2022, it said in a Wednesday report. “In CBO’s projections, the current economic expansion continues, and economic output grows rapidly over the next year,” the CBO […]

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Has the Fed set the stage for a major risk rally?

Has the Fed Inadvertently Signaled When Rate Hikes Will End? 11:43:56 AM Source: Bloomberg Intelligence Most Fed officials agreed at their gathering this month that the central bank needed to tighten in half-point steps over the next couple of meetings, continuing an aggressive set of moves that would leave policy makers with flexibility to shift […]

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Housing and Retail Showcase the Power of the High-End Consumer

8:19:07 AM Source: Bloomberg Intelligence The latest retailer and homebuilder results once again highlight a bifurcation between affluent US consumers, who continue to spend robustly, and the less well-off. The split is particularly pronounced in housing. A new home is a luxury good and any home at all has become increasingly expensive. The highest-end of the publicly-traded […]

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Tech investor Jim Breyer says he’s adding Microsoft on weakness and will hold it for years

PUBLISHED WED, MAY 25 202212:20 PM EDTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO Yun Li@YUNLI626 James Breyer, founder and CEO of Breyer Capital at the 2018 WEF in Davos, Switzerland. Adam Galica | CNBC Billionaire venture capitalist Jim Breyer said he is buying the dip in Microsoft, a conviction bet for him for the long term. “I’m buying a […]

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US Durable Goods Orders Rise on Steady Business Equipment Demand

Wednesday, May 25, 2022 05:52 AM By Reade Pickert Bookings for long-lasting goods increased 0.4% in April Core capital goods orders and shipments continue to advance (Bloomberg) — Orders placed with US factories for durable goods rose in April, highlighting firm and sustained demand for equipment and merchandise. Bookings for durable goods — items meant to last at […]

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No recession ahead: Evercore ISI predicts S&P 500 will jump 22% from current levels

CNBC FAST MONEY PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 24 20226:51 PM EDT Stephanie Landsman While retail investors head for the exits as stock prices sharply fluctuate, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel wants to put money to work. He calls the market environment very ugly, but he believes the economy will avert a recession — particularly due to healthy […]

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America Inc. is not worried about inflation

America Inc. Isn’t Worrying Tuesday, April 26, 2022 04:34 AM By Simon Kennedy (Bloomberg) — Hello. Today we look at what the U.S. corporate-earnings season is telegraphing about recession risks, how China’s latest lockdowns may translate into some of the biggest global supply lockdowns yet and who got hit hardest in the pandemic job market. Still […]

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Consumer confidence rises despite higher prices.

Consumer confidence in the United States rebounded from historic lows this month and retail sales edged up in tentative signs that the world’s largest economy is beginning to recover from the impact of a Russia-induced oil price shock. A monthly measure of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan recovered in April after falling to […]

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