JPMorgan Scraps Recession Call in Latest Sign of Rising Optimism
Reade Pickert Bloomberg August 4, 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists scrapped their call for a recession in the US, joining a growing number of forecasters who now expect the economy to avert the downturn that was once viewed as inevitable. The bank, which had previously said it expected a recession to begin in 2023, […]
US Productivity Jumps by Most Since 2020, Blunting Labor Costs
Reade Pickert Bloomberg August 3, 2023 US labor productivity logged its biggest increase in the second quarter in nearly three years, helping to offset rising labor costs. Productivity, or nonfarm business employee output per hour, rose at a 3.7% annual rate in the second quarter after registering a decline in the first three months of […]
S&P 500 Profits Get a Lift From the Crack in King Dollar’s Reign
Jessica Menton Bloomberg July 29, 2023 Traders bet greenback will fall more, helping overseas sales End of Fed rate hikes adds to pressure weighing on US currency With the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its most disruptive monetary-tightening campaign in a generation, a softening US dollar is poised to boost profit growth for nearly half of […]
US GDP Growth Accelerates to 2.4% as Consumers Show Resilience
Reade Pickert Bloomberg July 27, 2023 Household spending tops estimates, business investment robust Latest data likely add to hopes that US can skirt a recession US economic growth unexpectedly picked up steam in the second quarter, boosted by stronger-than-forecast consumer spending and robust business investment. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.4% annualized rate after a […]
US INSIGHT: ‘Objective’ Fed Watcher Thinks FOMC Turned Dovish
Anna Wong (Economist) and Nicholas Hallmark (Economist) Bloomberg July 25, 2023 Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan famously said, “If I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.” While Fed communications have become more transparent since Greenspan’s tenure, Fed watchers still often disagree on what they hear — perhaps reflecting their […]
IMF Lifts World Growth Outlook on US Stability, But Risks Linger
Eric Martin Bloomberg July 25, 2023 GDP this year seen expanding 3%, from 2.8% forecast in April High rates, persistent inflation, sluggish China among dangers The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for the world economy this year, estimating that risks have eased in recent months after the US averted a default and authorities staved off a banking […]
US Consumer Confidence Rises to a Two-Year High on Job Market
Reade Pickert Bloomberg July 25, 2023 US consumer confidence advanced in July to a two-year high, bolstered by a strong job market and easing inflation. The Conference Board’s index rose to 117 this month from 110.1 in June, data out Tuesday showed. That exceeded the median estimate of 112 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The group’s […]
Goldman’s Kostin Says S&P 500 to Be Pricier as Laggards Catch Up
Ksenia Galouchko Bloomberg July 24, 2023 S&P 500’s profit multiple could hit 21 times as rally expands Easing inflation, falling bond yields could also boost stocks The S&P 500’s high valuation is reasonable and could rise further this year as laggards of the index join the surge in winners from artificial intelligence, according to Goldman Sachs Group […]
US Recession Becomes Closer Call as Economists Rethink Forecasts
Rich Miller, Molly Smith, and Sarina Yoo Bloomberg July 21, 2023 Bloomberg survey shows firmer growth through third quarter Fed’s preferred inflation gauge seen ending 2024 near 2% goal Some of the forecasters who were first out of the box to predict a US recession are starting to hedge their bets as inflation ebbs and […]
Fed Seen Hiking Final Time to a 22-Year Peak in Economist Survey
Steve Matthews and Sarina Yoo Bloomberg July 20, 2023 One-fifth see another hike by November to contain inflation Fewer economists see recession relative to June survey Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to lift interest rates one more time next week as it ends a 16-month hiking cycle that has been the most aggressive fight against […]