There is a trade war, a government shutdown and a sluggish job market, but households are still spending
By Imani Moise and Ben Glickman
Oct. 23, 2025
Americans may feel worse about the economy, but they are still wielding their credit cards with confidence.
An escalating trade war, a prolonged government shutdown and a stagnant job market have economists and analysts fearing that consumer spending, a central driver of the U.S. economy, might slow down. The concerns have focused on lower-income households, where there have been some recent signs of stress.
But recent earnings reports from major card issuers such as JPMorgan Chase JPM 0.15% increase, Bank of America BAC 1.29% increase and Capital One COF -0.15 %decrease show that spending growth remains robust, delinquencies are easing and some banks are starting to lend more freely. Cardholders were carrying higher balances, but banks still expressed confidence about the overall health of consumers for now.
“The U.S. consumer and the overall macro economy have been quite resilient so far in 2025,” Capital One Chief Executive Richard Fairbank told analysts on an earnings call this week. “But I do think we’re in a period of elevated economic uncertainty.”
Spending on credit cards across six of the country’s largest issuers rose 7.5% in the third quarter compared with a year ago, continuing to outpace inflation.
“Consumer sentiment has been really downbeat, yet they just keep spending,” said Ted Rossman, a senior analyst at Bankrate.
Most of the new spending is coming from borrowers with strong credit scores, according to an analysis of large banks by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Excluding that group—which accounts for about two-thirds of credit-card accounts at major banks—average purchase volume declined after adjusting for inflation.
“The decline in real spending among consumers with weaker scores could reflect a greater reluctance to spend due to weaker household finances,” Lauren Lambie-Hanson, special adviser at the Philadelphia Fed, wrote in a report last week.
One reason big banks are reporting strong spending: many have thrown resources into premium cards that target affluent consumers. Customers with high annual-fee cards spend nearly three times as much as those with lower-fee cards, according to market-research firm J.D. Power. They are also willing to fork over high fees and are less likely to miss payments.
Top issuers including American Express AXP 0.83% increase, JPMorgan Chase, Capital One and Citigroup C 0.40% increase have trotted out new cards or enhanced perks this year, in many cases with higher fees. In the few weeks since American Express revamped its Platinum card, the pace of account openings has doubled, the company said. That card now has an annual fee of $895, up from $695.
Overall, American Express said its average fee per card was $119 in the third quarter, up 35% from the start of 2023.
Some banks have been opening up credit cards at a quicker rate after a slowdown earlier this year. The number of new accounts at four big lenders collectively rose 4.5% in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, though others continued to pull back.
Wells Fargo WFC 0.69% increase, newly freed from the Federal Reserve’s asset cap that had long limited its growth, led the pack with 299,000 new accounts in the most recent quarter, up from just 31,000 a year earlier. American Express and Bank of America, by contrast, opened fewer new accounts compared with last year.
Synchrony Financial SYF 0.32% increase, a major issuer to a range of consumers, said the rate of net charge-offs—the credit-card balances lenders no longer expect to collect on—has fallen to near prepandemic levels. After tightening lending standards last year, the company said last week it is now loosening them again as fewer borrowers have fallen behind than expected.
“We still think the consumer is in pretty good shape,” said Synchrony Financial Chief Executive Brian Doubles on a call with analysts.
Delinquency rates, or the portion of borrowers who were late on payments, are typically a leading sign of stress among consumers.
Low delinquencies across the industry have given more issuers the confidence to lend more. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported drops in delinquency rates in the third quarter from a year ago. Rates of charge-offs were also down.
When asked whether consumers’ credit health was starting to deteriorate, Bank of America finance chief Alastair Borthwick had a straightforward answer.
“Not yet and no,” he said.