Inflation Markets: ‘Transitory’ Signals & Liquidity
(Bloomberg Intelligence) — Inflation-traded markets have increasingly signaled acceptance of the Federal Reserve’s view that elevated inflation will prove fleeting. We believe shifts in realized inflation — as opposed to inflation expectations — will continue to drive allocations and hedging, while data surprises could lead to shifts in the share of trading on platforms vs. […]
U.S. Rates October Scorecard and Model Update
(Bloomberg Intelligence) — The 10-year Treasury yield may approach but not breach 2%, as our end-2022 scenario sees a rate just above 1.9%. We look for near-term curve steepening, then flattening in 2022 as the front end prices for 2023 rate hikes. (10/01/21) 1. A Steeper Yield Curve Now, Flatter LaterReturn to Top Treasury Yields: Our […]
Alphabet’s Waymo and GM’s Cruise get California DMV approval to run commercial driverless car services
The California Department of Motor Vehicles approved autonomous vehicle deployment permits for GM-backed Cruise and Alphabet’s Waymo on Thursday. It allows the companies to charge a fee and receive compensation for autonomous services offered to the public, such as ride-hailing, in certain areas. The companies still need approval from the California Public Utilities Commission, according to the California DMV, but […]
Taiwan invasion doesn’t hang in the military balance
There is growing speculation and alarm about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan after Beijing sharpened its rhetoric towards the Taiwanese government and increased its military manoeuvres around the territory. The Biden administration is worried that if Chinese leaders are overconfident in China’s growing power and assume Washington’s decline, they might decide to invade Taiwan.
The S&P’s March to 5,000
(Bloomberg Intelligence) — This autumn’s weakness in stocks may be quickly forgotten in 2022, as a steady hand at the Fed and faster-than-expected economic recovery could lead to the S&P 500 stretching above 5,000 within 12 months in the most bullish scenario of our macroeconomic model. A 4,628 base case also assumes recent weakness will […]
U.S. core capital goods orders, shipments rise strongly in August
New orders and shipments of key U.S.-made capital goods increased solidly in August amid strong demand for computers and electronic products, keeping business spending on equipment on track for another quarter of robust growth. The sustained strength in business investment is expected to limit the hit on economic growth from an anticipated slowdown in consumer […]
Retail sales post surprise gain as consumers show strength despite delta fears
Retail sales posted a surprise gain in August despite fears that escalating Covid cases and supply chain issues would hold back consumers, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. Sales increased 0.7% for the month against the Dow Jones estimate of a decline of 0.8%. A separate economic report showed that weekly jobless claims increased to 332,000 […]
West shouldn’t misinterpret or overstate Beijing’s new tech regulations, ex-Google China exec says
The former president of Google China warned that the West should be careful not to overstate or misinterpret the recently introduced regulations by Beijing that have hurt the likes of Alibaba, Tencent and Didi. Kai-Fu Lee, who now invests in Chinese start-ups through his venture capital firm Sinovation Ventures, told CNBC Tuesday that China is merely regulating a handful of large […]
UBS hikes its year-end S&P 500 target, says any pullback will lead to a new high by year-end
PUBLISHED WED, SEP 8 20217:02 AM EDTUPDATED 9 MIN AGO Jesse Pound@JESSERPOUND A Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in New York, March 9, 2020. Carlo Allegri | Reuters The stock market still has upside after a dramatic bounce-back from 2020′s pandemic sell-off and double-digit gains this year, according […]
Goldman cuts GDP forecast on delta variant setback, fading fiscal stimulus
PUBLISHED TUE, SEP 7 20216:22 AM EDTUPDATED 4 HOURS AGO Jesse Pound@JESSERPOUND Food is served at an outdoor restaurant in New York, August 3, 2021. Caitlin Ochs | Reuters Economists at Goldman Sachs have downgraded their outlook for U.S. economic growth, saying in a note to clients that the impact from the delta variant of […]