JPMorgan said Monday’s surprise vaccine news is setting the stock market up for big gains next year, seeing the potential for S&P 500 to surge as much as 24% by the end of 2021.
“The equity market is facing one of the best backdrops for sustained gains in years. After a prolonged period of elevated risks (global trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, US election uncertainty, etc.), the outlook is significantly clearing up, especially with news of a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan, said in a note on Monday.
The bank now expects the S&P 500 to surpass its target of 3,600 before the end of 2020 and rise about 10% to reach 4,000 by early next year. JPMorgan added the broad equity benchmark has “a good potential” to move even higher to 4,500 by the end of next year, which represents a 24% rally from here.
Major stock averages surged to new record highs on Monday following news that Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective based on a trial study. The result was much better than the market expected as health officials has said that a vaccine that was 50% to 60% effective would be acceptable.
Cyclical stocks, name that most reliant on a successful reopening, led the market gains on Monday. Airlines and cruise lines operators skyrocketed with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines all jumping more than 20%. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line also surged double digits.
“We expected an imminent vaccine outcome and a rotation out of COVID-19 beneficiaries / Momentum and into Epicenter / Value stocks,” Lakos-Bujas said.