MON, JUN 13 20223:09 PM EDT
CNBC: Yun Li
“We believe rates market repricing went too far and the Fed will surprise dovishly relative to what is now priced into the curve,” JPMorgan’s Kolanovic said in a note.
The strategist believes that investors have been too pessimistic on overblown recession fears, noting that the consumer remains strong on the back of economic reopening.
“The move in markets prices in more than enough recession risk, and we believe a near-term recession will ultimately be avoided thanks to consumer strength, COVID reopening/recovery, and policy stimulus in China,” Kolanovic said.
Kolanovic’s view is more bullish than most of strategists on Wall Street, many of whom are calling for a recession as the Federal Reserve fights soaring inflation with higher rates.
The S&P 500 dropped 3.2% Monday to hit a new intraday low for the year. The benchmark is now off about 21% from its record, back in bear market territory after trading there briefly on an intraday basis about three weeks ago.
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic was one of the few on Wall Street who correctly called the March 2020 bottom and the subsequent rebound. He was promoted to chief global markets strategist from the bank’s head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy in 2021.
Though Kolanovic has remained too bullish this year during the sell-off. But he sees the market rebounding eventually and too much pessimism already in stocks.
“We also see strong supports from low investor positioning, depressed sentiment, and corporate buyback inflows. While we expect markets to recover YTD losses in H2 to finish roughly flat, we don’t advocate indiscriminate buying of broad risk markets,” Kolanovic said.
Instead of buying the overall market, Kolanovic favored segments that sold off strongly and are trading near record low relative valuations, including innovation-focused companies, China ADRs, small caps and biotech.