Source: Bloomberg economics Cameron Crise, today 7:11:09 AM
Recession fears can be put to one side, for today at least, as both the JOLTS and services ISM came out better than expected. The JOLTS figure showed 11.25 million job openings, down from an upwardly-revised 11.68 million. The figures do look like they are off the peak — the jobs per unemployed ratio is down from 1.99 to 1.89 and the quits rate is 2.8% from a peak of 3.0% — but are still consistent with a fairly robust labor market. The ISM survey, meanwhile, had less positive news on the labor front — the employment component fell from 50.2 to 47.4, the lowest since July 2020. Prices paid (80.1) and new orders (55.6) both remain fairly high, but are lower than the May reading.
It’s all consistent with a downshifting in the pace of growth, but for now there isn’t much evidence that things are falling off a cliff. Given the recent price action in commodities and fixed income, that may be enough to prompt a bit of a reversal.