Reasons Are Adding Up for Optimism on Inflation
John Authers BloombergNovember 6, 2022 Reasons to Be CheerfulWelcome to Inflation Week. In the US, the week ahead will be punctuated by widespread school closures on Tuesday for midterm elections, by what could well be another drawn-out vote-counting process, and by Veterans Day (Armistice Day in the UK) on Friday. The big moment for financial […]
Explain to Me Again How Fed Rate Hikes Bring Down Rent Inflation
BloombergOctober 29,2022 One of the biggest components of rising CPI is rent or owner’s equivalent rent on a year-over-year basis. As the Fed prepares to hike rates yet again this week to tame inflation, it’s worth asking whether its actions will have any impact on rents.The chart below suggests it won’t. In fact in 2001 […]
Strong Dollar Seen Hurting US Outlook and Even Tilting Fed Path
Steve Matthews and Kyungjin Yoo BloombergOctober 29,2022 Economists expect impact on Fed policy after greenback’s surge Fed can’t escape being central banker to world, economists say A strong dollar is likely to weigh negatively on the US economic outlook and could alter how high the Federal Reserve ultimately raises interest rates, economists surveyed by Bloomberg […]
Fed’s rate debate shifts to how, and when, to slow down
Howard Schneider ReutersOctober 21,2022 The Federal Reserve, set to approve another large interest rate increase early next month, is shifting to a debate over how much higher it can safely push borrowing costs and how and when to slow the pace of future increases. The U.S. central bank is likely to provide a signal at […]
Treasury Buybacks Are Coming, Though the Details Are Murky
Alexandra Harris BloombergOctober 27,2022 Program may help market functioning, but is not a cure-all Facility helps correct supply-demand imbalances, analysts say The Treasury is likely to move ahead with plans to buy back securities from investors to improve market functioning, though it’s still unclear what the primary objectives of such a program should be and […]
Treasuries Extend Rally as Investors Go All In on Dovish Pivot
Alyce Andres BloombergOctober 27,2022 The Treasury market’s rally off Friday’s low continues for a fourth day. That bodes well for a continued extension of this tactical rally. Investors are going all in on the potential for the Fed to deliver a dovish pivot after soft details in the US 3Q GDP report and expectations for significant slowing in the European growth […]
Treasury yields could be peaking soon and that could ease some pressure on stocks
Patti Domm CNBCOctober 19,2022 The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield has been setting new 14-year highs, but strategists expect it to ease from those levels in a matter of weeks, relieving pressure on the stock market. That may be a temporary phenomenon, but it could serve to fuel the year-end rally that many investors have […]
‘It didn’t need to be like this’: Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed was too slow responding to inflation and now the risk of a recession is ‘uncomfortably high’
Tristan BoveFortuneOctober 17,2022 “We should not be looking at this uncomfortable probability of a recession. But there’s a reason why we’re looking at it. And that is a Federal Reserve that is scrambling to play catch-up,” he said. The U.S. economy may be edging closer to a completely unnecessary recession, according to one top economist, […]
Josh Brown says the Fed has ‘zero credibility’ after big miss on 2022 rate hike forecasts
Josh BrownCNBCOctober 11,2022 Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown said Tuesday that investors should put little weight on the Federal Reserve’s predictions about rate hikes after the central bank’s missteps over the past year. “This is a body of people who one year ago today were telling us, based on their forecasts, that there would […]
The Fed’s Next Crisis Is Brewing in US Treasuries
Robert BurgessBloombergOctober 14,2022 (Bloomberg Opinion) –Markets have been whipsawed in recent weeks, first by talk that a cooling labor market would allow the Federal Reserve to “pivot” away from its aggressive interest-rate hiking campaign, and then by comments from central bankers that any such move would be premature — as Thursday’s hot consumer price index […]