Fed’s High Inflation Forecast Baffles Wall Street After Soft CPI
Matthew Boesler BloombergDecember 16, 2022 ‘Extremely strong December numbers’ implicit in new projection Officials may not have updated numbers after Tuesday CPI data The Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections this week appeared to incorporate an assumption that raised eyebrows: inflation would prove resurgent at the end of this year. The quarterly projections showed Fed officials […]
Fed is ‘way too tight’ and will have to consider cutting rates in 2023, says Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel
Jesse Pound CNBCDecember 15, 2022 The Federal Reserve is going too far in its fight against inflation and will be under pressure to reverse course next year, according to Wharton School of Business professor Jeremy Siegel. But Siegel pointed out that the Fed had repeatedly changed its forecast over the course of this year and […]
US INSIGHT: 72 Models Show 1 Part of Price Fight Going Fed’s Way
David Wilcox BloombergDecember 11, 2022 From the early days of the inflation outbreak in 2021, analysts and policymakers have feared that if rapid price gains persisted more than a few months, expectations might become unanchored, making the job of bringing actual inflation back down to 2% more difficult. Bloomberg Economics has run 72 models to […]
US Inflation Will Be Much Lower by End of 2023, Yellen Says
Jill Disis BloombergDecember 12, 2022 Yellen says she is ‘hopeful’ the labor market will be healthy CPI expected to have slowed to 7.3% in November: economists US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says inflation will be much lower by the end of next year, as long as there are no unanticipated shocks to the economy. “I […]
Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows
Jeff Cox CNBCDecember 12, 2022 Consumers grew more optimistic about inflation in November amid expectations that both food and energy price increases would be less severe in the coming year, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday. The central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at […]
US Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations Fall to Lowest Since 2021
Reade Pickert and Augusta Saraiva BloombergDecember 9, 2022 One-year price views dropped to 4.6% in early December University of Michigan sentiment index climbed to 59.1 US short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in more than a year and consumer sentiment picked up, helped by falling gasoline prices. Consumers expect prices will climb […]
Senior Fed Economist Says Odds of Avoiding Recession Have Risen
Matthew Boesler BloombergNovember 18, 2022 Latest data raise soft-landing chances slightly, Raffo says Minneapolis Fed’s director of research speaks in interview (Bloomberg) A senior Federal Reserve economist said the latest data on consumer spending, wages and prices suggest the central bank’s chances of achieving a soft landing for the US economy have improved a bit […]
US REACT: Factory Output Flags Lower Goods Prices Ahead
Andrew Husby BloombergNovember 16, 2022 (Bloomberg Economics) —OUR TAKE: October industrial production figures add to a growing ensemble of data flagging softening core-goods inflation ahead, a plus for Fed officials looking to step down the pace of rate hikes. That said, with a tight labor market and robust services-price inflation accounting for the bulk of […]
Fed seen slowing rate hike pace as inflation eases
Ann Saphir ReutersNovember 10, 2022 A larger than expected drop in consumer inflation last month will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to pare down future interest rate increases as the impact of its swift monetary tightening this year begins to take hold. October data published Thursday by the Labor Department showed key items like rents increasing […]
Reasons Are Adding Up for Optimism on Inflation
John Authers BloombergNovember 6, 2022 Reasons to Be CheerfulWelcome to Inflation Week. In the US, the week ahead will be punctuated by widespread school closures on Tuesday for midterm elections, by what could well be another drawn-out vote-counting process, and by Veterans Day (Armistice Day in the UK) on Friday. The big moment for financial […]