Updates – Macro Trend

Bespoke studied what happens when short-term interest rates rise above longer-term rates and found that when the 3-year and 5-year spread inverts, as it did Monday, other spreads soon follow, and so does a recession.

U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in seven months in October.

The U.S. economy slowed in the third quarter as previously reported, but the pace was likely strong enough to keep growth on track to hit the Trump administration’s 3 percent target this year.

U.S. home construction improved a slight 1.5 percent in October, but in a troubling sign, ground breakings for single-family houses fell.

U.S. manufacturing output increased for a fifth straight month in October, shrugging off a sharp decline in motor vehicle production and suggesting underlying strength in factory activity.

U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in October as purchases of motor vehicles and building materials surged.

A preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for November came in slightly above expectations.

Tariff concerns remain a key talking point on Wall Street when dissecting the market volatility fit over the past month, but the issue seems to be carrying less heft among corporate executives.

U.S. companies have localized their operations around the world. Eventually, Chinese firms will, too.