Updates – Macro Trend

Trade, inventories power U.S. economy to 3.2 percent growth in first quarter

U.S. economic growth accelerated in the first quarter, but the burst in growth was driven by a smaller trade deficit and the largest accumulation of unsold merchandise since 2015, temporary factors that are likely to reverse in the coming quarters.

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Global tightening cycle over, slower ride for growth ahead: Reuters Poll

Major central banks are done tightening policy, according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters, with the growth outlook wilting across developed and emerging economies along with scant prospects for a surge in inflation.

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Exports, inventories seen boosting U.S. first-quarter growth

The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors.

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US weekly jobless claims post biggest rise in 19 months

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits increased by the most in 19 months last week.

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The feared ‘earnings recession’ is not showing up in the first-quarter numbers

Now that more than a third of the S&P 500 companies have reported, earnings growth looks to be flat this quarter, not negative as many Wall Street analysts expected.

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Companies are crushing earnings estimates by 3-to-1 margin

Earnings from a diverse group of S&P 500 companies have been better-than-expected with better than normal gains.  The better profits have helped eliminate fears of an earnings recession, and many analysts believe the first quarter is the trough.  The S&P 500 rallied Tuesday, touching its all-time closing high of 2,930 in midday trading.

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U.S. labor market tightening; inflation pressures moderate

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a 49-1/2-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength that could temper expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic growth.

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U.S. job growth rebounds in March, but wage gains moderate

U.S. employment growth accelerated from a 17-month low in March as milder weather boosted hiring in sectors like construction, which could further allay fears of an abrupt slowdown in economic activity in the first quarter.

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Wall Street rallies on upbeat China, U.S. manufacturing data

U.S. stocks rallied on Monday, starting off the second quarter on a strong note, as upbeat manufacturing numbers from China and the United States eased worries about slowing global growth.

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New home sales rise to 11-month high in February

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased to an 11-month high in February and sales for January were revised higher, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were starting to lift the struggling housing market.

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