Updates – Macro Trend

Yuan to weaken with or without U.S.-China trade progress: Reuters poll

There will be no respite for the battered Chinese yuan over the coming year as U.S.-China trade relations are expected to remain rocky despite recent hopes for some resolution, a Reuters poll of FX strategists found.

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Private payroll growth surges in December to end 2019 strong, ADP says

Private payroll growth ended 2019 on a strong note, with companies adding 202,000 positions in December in another sign of a healthy labor market, according to a report Wednesday from ADP and Moody’s Analytics.

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December’s ISM non-manufacturing index signals better-than-expected expansion

Activity in the U.S. services sector rose slightly in December as businesses felt relieved by a partial trade agreement between the U.S. and China, data released Tuesday showed.

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Fed’s Evans: U.S. economy looks good for GDP growth of 2% to 2.25% for 2020: CNBC

The fundamentals of the U.S. economy are “good” at the moment and the labor market remains strong with the economy set for a gross domestic product growth rate of 2% to 2.25% for 2020, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans told CNBC on Friday.

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Small business pay checks are growing at a fast pace as job gains slow

Weekly earnings for employees of small businesses grew at an annual rate of 4.1% at the end of the year, the fastest pace since the Paychex/IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch began.

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Saturday Shopping Sets U.S. One-Day Sales Record, Analyst Says

Holiday shopping set records over the weekend, with Super Saturday sales reaching $34.4 billion, the biggest single day in U.S. retail history, according to Customer Growth Partners.

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Fannie Mae boosts 2020 housing forecast ‘significantly’

Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group predicts builders will expand production more than previously expected, due to a strong labor market and robust consumer spending. Low mortgage rates will also help.

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US housing starts rise more than expected, with permits at a 12-1/2-year high

U.S. homebuilding increased more than expected in November and permits for future home construction surged to a 12-1/2-year high as lower mortgage rates continue to boost the housing market and support the broader economy.

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China to target around 6% growth in 2020, step up state spending: sources

China plans to set a lower economic growth target of around 6% in 2020 from this year’s 6-6.5%, relying on increased state infrastructure spending to ward off a sharper slowdown, policy sources said.

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Home builder confidence soars to highest level since 1999

The National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index increased five points to 76 in December from an upwardly-revised 71 the month prior, the trade group said Monday. December’s figure represents the highest index reading since June 1999.

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