Updates – Macro Trend

China Real Estate Crisis & Omicron Threaten Xi Jinping’s Rule

See below article reflecting on George Soros’ interview with Bloomberg Top of Mind Thoughts Tension within China’s Communist Party is growing Leader Xi cannot afford any mis-steps China’s economy is slowing faster than consensus expectations China is one of the most indebted large economies in the world Can Xi Jinping afford a Taiwan Conflict and […]

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Inflation’s shock to economy complete as small business tipping point reached

See below article from CNBC regarding small business challenges regarding macroeconomic impact of higher inflation combined with rising borrowing costs: Top of Mind Thoughts -National retailers have an economies-of-scale “pricing power” advantage over small business operators -Companies with digital distribution strategies should weather supply chain challenges better than non-digital competitors -Companies that use technology to […]

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Goldman Sees Fed Hiking Seven Times in 2022 Instead of Five

Thursday, February 10, 2022 10:53 PM By Enda Curran Likely path is longer 25 basis-point hikes: Goldman analysts Global banks have been expecting an aggressive Fed hike cycle (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees the Federal Reserve raising interest rates seven times this year to contain hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation, rather than the five it had […]

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Free Cash Flow to Become Big Tech’s Key Focus in 2022

Anurag Rana Team: Technology BI Senior Industry Analyst Apple, Microsoft Multiples Could Expand on Cash Flow Stability Contributing Analysts Ashley Kim (Technology) (Bloomberg Intelligence) — Recent earnings suggest that tech investors are focusing more on future profit than sales gains, which could lead to multiple expansion for leading cash flow generators like Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet in […]

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Despite Inflation Surge, the Fed Should Keep Steady

Thursday, February 10, 2022 10:42 AM By The Editors (Bloomberg Opinion) — A further spike in U.S. inflation in January — prices were 7.5% higher than a year ago, the fastest increase for 40 years — was the last the thing the Federal Reserve wanted to see as it weighed its next moves in monetary policy. It had […]

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Read This Before You Worry About the Yield Curve: Macro Man

“Excellent article about the yield curve and how to interpret market participants expectations of the future”   Read This Before You Worry About the Yield Curve: Macro Man Thursday, February 10, 2022 07:02 AM By Cameron Crise (Bloomberg) — Well, that’s put the cat amongst the pigeons, hasn’t it? At some point there will come a […]

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Inflation-Stoking Supply Crunch Set to Ease in Second Half

Wednesday, February 9, 2022 03:17 AM By Christian Wienberg and Anna Edwards Maersk says ocean bottlenecks to ‘normalize’ around midyear Shift will ease pressure on trade but erode shipping revenue (Bloomberg) — A major player in global trade signaled disrupted supply chains rattling economies from Vietnam to Germany may return to normal within months, easing concerns of a […]

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The Housing Party Is Starting to Wind Down

Wednesday, February 9, 2022 03:00 AM By Gary Shilling (Bloomberg Opinion) — With demand waning and supplies increasing, the housing market is in for a lot of pain. Low interest rates have been a boon to housing, making mortgages more affordable and allowing consumers to refinance existing loans, with many of them tapping the equity in […]

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The unprecedented boom in container shipping may be starting to fade

The unprecedented boom in container shipping may be starting to fade, A.P. Moller-Maersk signaled, providing an early sign inflation-driving supply chain snarls may be ebbing. The world’s biggest owner of container ships expects a strong first half before a “normalization” early in the second and said 2022 earnings will be well below estimates after a record […]

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CNBC CFO COUNCIL ‘This is a big deal’: How Apple earnings can grow even if iPhone growth goes to zero

In its own way, Apple may have found a financial solution to the supply chain crises dogging manufacturers worldwide. After the latest set of Apple quarterly numbers, Wall Street analysts running the numbers say it’s possible to see how Apple can deliver double-digit profit growth without needing its manufacturing-driven hardware business, including iPhones, to grow at all. Last […]

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