Updates – Macro Trend

Ukraine war: Military intelligence chief ‘optimistic’ of Russian defeat saying war ‘will be over by end of year’

Major General Kyrylo Budanov spoke exclusively to Sky News and predicted the war will reach a turning point in August. He correctly predicted when Russia would invade earlier this year. International Affairs Editor @DominicWaghorn Saturday 14 May 2022 04:19, UK Ukraine’s head of military intelligence says the war with Russia is going so well, that […]

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Russia planned a major military overhaul, Ukraine shows the results

By Neil MacFarquhar (New York Times) — Russia wanted to build a leaner, more flexible fighting force and eliminate waste, bureaucracy and corruption. But entrenched, Soviet-era practices endure. Army vehicles were so decrepit that repair crews were stationed roughly every 15 miles. Some officers were so out of shape that the military budgeted $1.5 million […]

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US Retail Sales Show Consumer Standing Firm in Face of Inflation

Tuesday, May 17, 2022 06:01 AM By Olivia Rockeman Value of purchases climbed 0.9% in April after stronger March Spending gains were broad, potentially helped by credit cards (Bloomberg) — US retail sales grew at a solid pace in April, reflecting broad-based gains and suggesting demand for merchandise remains resilient despite rampant inflation. The value of overall retail […]

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JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Stock Markets Overprice Recession Risk

Monday, May 16, 2022 11:33 AM By Elena Popina Stock market pricing in higher recession risk than debt, rates Bullish strategist’s buy-the-dip calls haven’t worked in 2022 (Bloomberg) — Equity investors’ anxiety about a potential recession isn’t showing up in other parts of the market, which is giving JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovicconfidence in his […]

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Historic tech sell-off is a ‘generational buying opportunity’ for the ‘right’ stocks, says analyst Dan Ives

PUBLISHED FRI, MAY 13 202212:20 PM EDTUPDATED 40 MIN AGO Sarah Min@_SARAHMIN In this article PANW+11.12 (+2.32%) TSLA+41.23 (+5.66%) LICY+0.78 (+12.36%) AAPL+3.90 (+2.73%) XOS-0.02 (-1.07%) The tech sell-off is not the second dot-com bubble — it’s a “buying opportunity” for the right stocks, according to Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives. “We view this historic sell-off as more of a generational buying […]

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U.S. INSIGHT: Will China Lockdown Knock Fed Off 50-bps Path?

Monday, May 9, 2022 02:39 PM By Anna Wong (Economist) (Bloomberg Economics) — At his press conference following the May FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell outlined the condition that would allow the committee to shift from 50-bps rate hikes to 25-bps: Inflation would have to come down on a sustained basis. One way that could happen […]

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Goldman’s Oppenheimer Sees Value After $11 Trillion Stock Rout

Tuesday, May 10, 2022 02:55 AM By Michael Msika and Nikos Chrysoloras European stocks at ‘oversold’ levels, Nasdaq 100 nearing that Goldman, JPMorgan see buying opportunities after selloff (Bloomberg) — The rout in global equity markets that erased $11 trillion since the end of March may be reaching a floor for now as battered valuations, particularly among tech […]

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Inflation outlook for consumers falls from record high, Fed survey shows

Inflation expectations over the next year fell to a median 6.3% in April, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from the record high the previous month. Still, household spending is projected to rise a record 8% over the next year, according to a New York Fed survey of consumers. Consumer expectations for gas price increases fell […]

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JPMorgan’s Kolanovic says the globe is not headed toward recession and is very bullish energy stocks

PUBLISHED MON, MAY 9 20222:18 PM EDTUPDATED 25 MIN AGO Pippa Stevens@PIPPASTEVENS13 In this article EOG-15.10 (-11.42%) OXY-7.35 (-11.32%) Stocks tumbled Monday as global growth concerns continue to weigh on markets, but JPMorgan doesn’t see a recession on the horizon. With this in mind, the firm is doubling down on its call to buy energy stocks. “The […]

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CNBC: Ron Insana says the Fed is defying logic by trying to create a recession

Below is an excellent article highlighting the alternative view of what the federal reserve should be doing today.  Though the article makes good points, the Federal Reserve does have to move off of negative real rates and begin to normalize monetary policy.  Federal reserve forward guidance is to normalize monetary policy, not to create a […]

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