Updates – Macro Trend

U.S. consumer is soldiering on despite soaring inflation and recession risk, credit card giants say

Yun Li CNBCOctober 21,2022 U.S. consumers have demonstrated a willingness to continue to pay higher prices in the face of a sluggish economy that could be tipped into a recession, according to credit card giants American Express and Bank of America. American Express on Friday reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue, while raising its full-year […]

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Treasury yields could be peaking soon and that could ease some pressure on stocks

Patti Domm CNBCOctober 19,2022 The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield has been setting new 14-year highs, but strategists expect it to ease from those levels in a matter of weeks, relieving pressure on the stock market. That may be a temporary phenomenon, but it could serve to fuel the year-end rally that many investors have […]

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Bank of America CEO says latest spending and savings data show that the U.S. consumer is healthy

Hugh SonCNBCOctober 17,2022 Bank of America’s customers continue to spend freely, using their credit cards and other payment methods for 10% more transaction volume in September and the first half of October than a year earlier, CEO Brian Moynihan said. Customers’ account balances remain higher than before the coronavirus pandemic struck in early 2020, Moynihan […]

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After two years of shipping snarls, things are starting to turn around

Su-Lin Tan CNBC October 16,2022 After two years of port congestions and container shortages, disruptions are now easing as Chinese exports slow in light of waning demand from Western economies and softer global economic conditions, logistics data shows. “The retailers and the bigger buyers or shippers are more cautious about the outlook on demand and […]

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US Services Growth Remains at Solid Pace, Price Pressures Ease

Augusta Saraiva Bloomberg October 5, 2022 Measures of business activity, orders softer but elevated Index of service provider employment highest in six months Growth at US service providers remained firm in September, reflecting solid business activity and orders, while a measure of prices fell to the lowest since the start of 2021. The Institute for […]

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U.S. core capital goods orders surge; consumer confidence rises further

Lucia Mutikani Reuters September 27, 2022 Core capital goods orders increase 1.3% in August Core capital goods shipments rise 0.3% Consumer confidence index increases to 108.0 in September House price growth decelerates in July  New orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased more than expected in August, suggesting that businesses remained keen to invest in equipment […]

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The Fed is dragging the US into a recession to cool surging prices. Most Americans expect inflation to die down on its own.

Ben Winck Business Insider September 27, 2022 The Fed is pushing the US into a recession to cool inflation. It might not be necessary. Inflation expectations have been falling since the spring, signaling there’s little chance of a 1980s-like price surge. Raising rates out of fear that expectations will rebound is “irresponsible,” a former Fed […]

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The conditions needed for a stock market bottom are forming, as investors get overly bearish, JP Morgan says.

Matthew Fox Business Insider September 26, 2022 Conditions are forming that suggest a stock market bottom could be near, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said. Kolanovic said the ongoing sell-off in stocks has been driven by an extremely hawkish Fed. Peaking inflation, extremely depressed investor positioning, and attractive valuations give Kolanovic confidence in his view. The more […]

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US Producer Prices Fall for a Second Month as Fuel Costs Retreat

Wednesday, September 14, 2022 05:38 AM Source: Bloomberg by Reade Pickert A measure of US producer prices fell for a second month in August as fuel costs continued to retreat, though an underlying measure of wholesale costs firmed in a sign of persistent inflation in the production pipeline. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.1% […]

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U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rise in August; weekly jobless claims fall

September 15, 202210:10 AM PDT Source: Reuters by Lucia Mutikani U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rebounded in August as Americans ramped up purchases of motor vehicles and dined out more amid lower gasoline prices, but demand is cooling as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to fight inflation. Consumer spending, however, is likely to remain […]

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