The Fed is dragging the US into a recession to cool surging prices. Most Americans expect inflation to die down on its own.
Ben Winck Business Insider September 27, 2022 The Fed is pushing the US into a recession to cool inflation. It might not be necessary. Inflation expectations have been falling since the spring, signaling there’s little chance of a 1980s-like price surge. Raising rates out of fear that expectations will rebound is “irresponsible,” a former Fed […]
The conditions needed for a stock market bottom are forming, as investors get overly bearish, JP Morgan says.
Matthew Fox Business Insider September 26, 2022 Conditions are forming that suggest a stock market bottom could be near, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said. Kolanovic said the ongoing sell-off in stocks has been driven by an extremely hawkish Fed. Peaking inflation, extremely depressed investor positioning, and attractive valuations give Kolanovic confidence in his view. The more […]
US Producer Prices Fall for a Second Month as Fuel Costs Retreat
Wednesday, September 14, 2022 05:38 AM Source: Bloomberg by Reade Pickert A measure of US producer prices fell for a second month in August as fuel costs continued to retreat, though an underlying measure of wholesale costs firmed in a sign of persistent inflation in the production pipeline. The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.1% […]
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rise in August; weekly jobless claims fall
September 15, 202210:10 AM PDT Source: Reuters by Lucia Mutikani U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rebounded in August as Americans ramped up purchases of motor vehicles and dined out more amid lower gasoline prices, but demand is cooling as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to fight inflation. Consumer spending, however, is likely to remain […]
Falling gas prices are raising hopes that inflation is slowing, New York Fed survey shows
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 12 202211:00 AM EDT Source: CNBC by Jeff Cox Lower gas prices are raising optimism that inflation is on the decline, according to a survey Monday from the New York Federal Reserve. Respondents to the central bank’s August Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated they expect the annual inflation rate to be 5.7% […]
How the Ukraine Offensive Will Shift the Market Narrative
Monday, September 12, 2022 12:43 AM Source: Bloomberg by John Authers The Ukrainian armed forces appear (and I emphasize appear) to have taught the rest of the world yet another lesson in the need to be cautious about knowing what we know. If the reports of the last few days are correct, then the chances of a Ukrainian […]
Treasuries Suggest Fed Can Tame Inflation Without Killing Growth
Saturday, September 10, 2022 04:00 PM Source: Bloomberg by Michael Mackenzie The bond market is signaling that in the matter of the Federal Reserve versus inflation, its money is on the US central bank. Demand for inflation protection — as measured by yields on inflation-protected Treasury debt — keeps falling. The five-year expected inflation rate […]
US INSIGHT: Recession Risk Remains at 30% in Next 12 Months
Wednesday, September 7, 2022 05:03 PM Source: Bloomberg by Eliza Winger (Economist) The inversion of the 10-year/2-year yield curve steepened in the past month, while macroeconomic data mostly surprised to the upside, suggesting resilience in the economy’s underlying growth momentum. On net, Bloomberg Economics’ model points to a 30% chance of recession in the next […]
US Services Gauge Rises to Four-Month High on Pickup in Demand
Tuesday, September 6, 2022 10:00 AM Source: Bloomberg By Reade Pickert The US service sector expanded in August at the fastest pace in four months amid a pickup in business activity and new orders, while price pressures continued to ease. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index edged up to 56.9 from 56.7, data showed Tuesday. The […]
The Bottom 50% of Americans Are Building Wealth Even as Inflation Bites
Monday, August 29, 2022 10:40 AM Source: Bloomberg by Paulina Cachero In an eight-minute speech last week that sent stock markets tumbling, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell echoed what he’s said before about the importance of containing surging consumer prices: “The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them.” Yet data […]