A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus
In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros The Wall Street Journal October 15, 2023 Economists are turning optimistic on the U.S. economy. They now think it will skirt a recession, the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and inflation will continue […]
Wall Street Is Marking Up Forecasts as Profit Downturn Nears End
Jessica Menton Bloomberg October 11, 2023 Strongest upward revisions ahead of earnings since early 2022 Shows hopes for ‘Goldilocks scenario’ after Fed’s rate hikes Wall Street analysts are boosting US earnings forecasts even before results start rolling in, signaling that the worst of the profit slump is likely over as ebbing inflation eases the pressure […]
Summers Says ‘Energizer Bunny’ Economy Signals Fed Hikes Failing
Christopher Anstey Bloomberg October 6, 2023 Ex-Treasury chief says Fed hikes may not be working as in past Summers says supply-demand imbalance helping drive yields up Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said the surge in US job growth last month is “great news” for now but also suggests the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes aren’t working as they used to, […]
Underlying US inflation pressures subside in August
Lucia Mutikani Reuters September 29, 2023 Consumer spending increases 0.4% in August Core PCE price index gains 0.1%; up 3.9% year-on-year Underlying U.S. inflation pressures moderated in August, with the annual rise in prices excluding food and energy falling below 4.0% for the first time in more than two years, welcome news for the Federal […]
The Fed’s New Dot Plot After Its September Policy Meeting: Chart
Vince Golle Bloomberg September 20, 2023 The Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, which the US central bank uses to signal its outlook for the path of interest rates, shows the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate is 5.6%. The estimate for the end of 2024 increased to 5.1%. Fed policymakers on Wednesday held […]
Bank of America raises year-end S&P 500 price target, says rally will broaden out from here
Sarah Min Bloomberg September 20, 2023 Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian raised her 2023 year-end S&P 500 price target to 4,600, saying the rally will broaden out from here. The equity and quant strategist increased her S&P 500 target to 4,600 from 4,300 — placing it among the higher forecasts in CNBC’s Market Strategist survey. The […]
Rising Rates Make Big Companies Even Richer
James Mackintosh The Wall Street Journal September 15, 2023 The amount companies earn from cash in the bank is going up even as interest costs fixed during the pandemic stand still. The Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to slow the red-hot economy. At some of the biggest and most secure companies, the moves had the opposite […]
Earnings Estimates Are Rising, a Welcome Sign for 2023 Market Rally
Karen Langley The Wall Street Journal September 10, 2023 Stock advances have surprised many investors, partly because expectations for company earnings hadn’t kept up. Wall Street expects corporate earnings to rebound after three quarters of year-over-year declines, a development that could put the stock market’s faltering rally on firmer footing. When the next reporting season […]
US services sector picked up in August, along with prices
Ann Saphir Reuters September 6, 2023 The U.S. services sector unexpectedly gained steam in August, with new orders firming and businesses paying higher prices for inputs — potential signs of still-elevated inflation pressures. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 last month, the highest reading since February […]
Fed Officials Set to Double Growth Forecast Amid Strong Data (1)
Steve Matthews Bloomberg September 6, 2023 Resilience may lead to fewer rate cuts penciled in for 2024 Separate tracker from Atlanta Fed is at 5.6% for third quarter The US economy has been looking so solid lately that Federal Reserve officials will probably need to double their projection for growth in 2023 when they publish […]