US INSIGHT: 60,000 Headlines + NLP Algo Flag Fed Rate Cut in May
Monday, January 29, 2024 02:56 PM By Anna Wong (Economist), Nick Hallmark (Economist) and Ana Galvao (Economist) (Bloomberg Economics) — Bloomberg Economics’ new Fedspeak index, based on a natural language processing model trained on more than 60,000 Fed headlines, suggests the first rate cut will come in May. That’s later than market bets of March — but earlier than […]
Stocks Drop as Solid Data Fuel Fed-Pivot Repricing: Markets Wrap
Rita Nazareth Bloomberg 1/17/2024 Fed swaps trim odds of March interest-rate cut to about 50% US retail sales rise by most in three months to cap holidays Stocks joined losses in risk assets as bond yields climbed on speculation the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates as the economy shows signs of resilience. At a […]
Top Goldman Sachs analyst says the world is moving into a new super cycle
Sophie Kiderlin CNBC January 8th, 2024 The world economy is moving into a “different” super cycle, Peter Oppenheimer, head of macro research in Europe at Goldman Sachs, told “Squawk Box Europe.” Artificial intelligence and decarbonization are two of the key factors that could have a positive impact during this new cycle, he said. Oppenheimer also […]
US Services Growth Slows as Employment Shrinks Most Since 2020
Mark Niquette Bloomberg January 5,2024 ISM services PMI decreased 2.1 points in December to 50.6 Gauge of new orders dropped to three-month low of 52.8 The US service sector came close to stagnating at the end of 2023 as a gauge of employment showed the biggest contraction in more than three years. The Institute for […]
US Inflation Report to Show Fed’s Battle Is Now All But Complete
Matthew Boesler Bloomberg December 21, 2023 Core PCE likely hit 2% target on six-month annualized basis Similar outlook for next six months seen prompting Fed easing The US inflation outlook was already steadily improving in recent months, but last week, right in the middle of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, the dam finally broke. Monthly […]
Conference Board’s Leading Index Shows Little Sign of Recession
Simon White Bloomberg December 21, 2023 The Conference Board’s Leading Index shows few signs of a recession yet. When that changes, it will be an early sign the market may need to begin pricing a more worrisome outcome. The measure dropped 0.5% in November. This marks the 20th consecutive decline, but a look under the hood […]
BofA’s Subramanian Sees S&P 500 Hitting Record 5,000 Next Year
Farah Elbahrawy Bloomberg November 21, 2023 Earnings are solid as companies overcome rates, macroeconomics ‘US exceptionalism is intact,’ bank’s strategists say The S&P 500 is set for a fresh high in 2024 because US companies have adapted to higher rates and weathered macroeconomic jolts, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists who join a growing […]
US Inflation Expectations Fall to Lowest Levels in Over Two Years
Augusta Saraiva Bloomberg September 15, 2023 US inflation expectations fell in early September to the lowest levels in more than two years as consumers grew more optimistic about the economic outlook. Consumers expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next year, down from the 3.5% expected in August, according to the preliminary […]
Retail Sales Gains Can Extend as High-Earners Spend
Lindsay Dutch Bloomberg Intelligence November 13, 2023 The higher-income consumer is healthy, a positive sign for retail sales in 4Q and 2024, though rising credit-card balances, student-loan repayments and lower savings are hurdles. A shift away from dining out or travel could create opportunity in other discretionary categories, like apparel and electronics — a boon […]
Bank of America says there are two things that will drive the next bull run in stocks
Brian Evans Bloomberg November 8, 2023 Artificial intelligence’s influence on increased productivity and a strong consumer could underpin the next bull run on Wall Street, according to Bank of America. Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, said Wednesday that AI advancements will streamline worker productivity and drive future growth for stocks outside […]